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The Hormuz Letter

@HormuzLetter

Iranian. The Middle East through the lens of oil, markets, and money. This is the only account.

📅 Sat Dec 27 01:13:52 +0000 2025

77 Following127K Followers2.3K Posts

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Latest posts from @HormuzLetter

The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter · Tue Aug 04 11:55:19 +0000 2026
BREAKING: Trump sets a new deadline, giving Iran until the end of today to finalize a Strait of Hormuz agreement with Oman or face "devastating air strikes," per Bloomberg. Trump adds "I want to give them every last chance before decapitation... You'll find out today." The agreement with Oman however would not be something that Trump wants, a senior Iranian official tells Reuters it would grant Iran total sovereign authority over all inbound maritime traffic, and Oman would clear outbound vessels only after notifying Iranian officials, ensuring Iran retains visibility and the option to intervene.
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The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter · Tue Aug 04 11:24:23 +0000 2026
BREAKING: The US Army has now used up "virtually all" of its stockpile of highly accurate long-range missiles during the 5-month Iran war, the exact munitions crucial in any conflict with China, including most of its Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) and Precision Strike Missiles (PrSM), with sources saying the stockpile is now empty, per Reuters. Between February and July, ~65% of Patriot interceptors have been expended and the number of THAAD ballistic missile interceptors in US stockpiles is at least 38% lower than at the start of the war due to constant Iranian attacks, with the US also having burned through ~50% of its global supply of Tomahawk cruise missiles. The growing worry is that the close to zero US missile supplies will severely limit the US ability to deter adversaries, particularly Russia in Ukraine and Europe, and China.
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The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter · Tue Aug 04 00:38:12 +0000 2026
BREAKING: A US military base in northern Kuwait has been directly hit by Iranian drones, per Tasnim. Initial reports indicate that this was the preemptive strike Iran has been planning.
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The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter · Tue Aug 04 00:23:38 +0000 2026
BREAKING: Iran has just struck a cargo ship northeast of Al Khasab, Oman, the second strike within 24 hours on a vessel attempting to pass through the US-backed southern route in the Strait of Hormuz. UKMTO confirms the incident, with the vessel broadcasting on VHF 16 that it had been hit by a projectile.
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The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter · Mon Aug 03 21:09:56 +0000 2026
BREAKING: A source close to Iranian officials says Tehran has documented a pattern of oil market manipulation tied to Axios reporting and Trump administration insiders, including evidence of a $9 billion insider trading operation linked to Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff. The documented timeline of the $9 billion insider profit: Between April and May 2026, a series of highly suspiciously timed trades in oil futures markets preceded major Iran war and deal announcements, each tied to reporting by Axios. On March 23, approximately $500–580 million in shorts were placed 15 minutes before Trump announced he was postponing strikes on Iran, oil dropped. On April 7, roughly $950–960 million in shorts were placed hours before Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran, oil fell 15 percent. On April 17, approximately $760 million in shorts were placed 20 minutes before Iran's foreign minister announced the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, oil dropped. On April 21, around $430 million in shorts were placed 15 minutes before Trump extended the ceasefire, oil dropped again. On May 6, nearly $920 million to $1.7 billion in crude oil shorts were placed approximately 70 minutes before an Axios scoop claimed the U.S. and Iran were near a "14-point agreement." Oil dropped 12 percent. Traders made an estimated $125 million in profit, while Iran called the May 6 Axios report "the Americans' wish list," and completely false. A senior Iranian official previously told Drop Site News that Iran privately warned VP JD Vance during Switzerland talks that Kushner and Witkoff were "abusing" negotiations, being "more interested in exploiting insider knowledge to profit in financial markets than reaching a deal."
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The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter · Mon Aug 03 20:19:11 +0000 2026
BREAKING: Iran says it was ready to launch a major missile attack on 3 locations in Ukraine following Ukraine’s strike on an Iranian commercial vessel in the Caspian Sea a week ago, per IRGC Maj. Gen. Mohsen Rezaei to Tasnim. Iran adds it canceled the strike after Ukraine directly apologized to Iran and called the strike on the Iranian ship a mistake.
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The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter · Mon Aug 03 19:44:46 +0000 2026
BREAKING: Iran's Maj. Gen. Mohsen Rezaei, IRGC Military Adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei rejects Iran's Foreign Ministry and Oman's claim that a temporary new second shipping route will open managed by Iran and Oman, saying "we will absolutely not allow the opening of a second corridor in the Strait of Hormuz" and "we will not allow any other route than Iran's [current northern] route," per Tasnim.
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The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter · Mon Aug 03 19:09:55 +0000 2026
BREAKING: Iran's Maj. Gen. Mohsen Rezaei, IRGC Military Adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, directly rejects Trump's new claim that the Strait of Hormuz will fully open tomorrow, saying Iran will "not allow any route other than Iran's route to open in the Strait of Hormuz. Even if the US brings an aircraft carrier into the illegal route of the Strait of Hormuz, we will target it," per Tasnim. This comes 1 hour after Trump claims he is "talking about having the Strait completely open by literally tomorrow" and that this is "the last chance for Iran to sign a deal."
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The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter · Mon Aug 03 17:15:08 +0000 2026
BREAKING: Trump's own US officials directly reject Trump's claim from last night that Iran negotiations are set to begin on Monday afternoon, saying there are no "new" or novel negotiations planned or ongoing, per CBS News. This comes hours after Iran directly rejected Trump's claim of ongoing or new Monday negotiations.
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The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter · Mon Aug 03 16:50:30 +0000 2026
BREAKING: Iran believes Trump will ultimately be forced to make major concessions including a $300B Iran reconstruction package, letting Iran control Hormuz, and accept all of Iran's core demands as the US falls into a "strategic stranglehold," senior Iranian officials tell Reuters. Iran is pursuing a strategy of calibrated escalation, increasing the economic and political costs for the US and its allies until Trump becomes more willing to compromise, particularly over the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian officials say sustained pressure will leave Trump with no choice but to negotiate on Iran's terms, especially looking ahead to the November midterms. Iran's big advantage is that it "can hurt the regional states and the global economy," with Iran believing it can tolerate economic pressure longer than a US-led coalition can tolerate recurring disruption to global commerce and energy markets.
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The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter · Mon Aug 03 16:20:49 +0000 2026
BREAKING: US CENTCOM sent an email to a broad group of military analysts last week saying "we are looking for new creative and unconventional ways to pressure and punish Iran" because "we need ideas," per CNN. A source close to CENTCOM says "CENTCOM is looking at everything, acknowledging it needs to reevaluate the strategy." The crowdsourcing-style query, which military officials said was unusual over email, is one sign of the limited and potentially unpalatable options available to Trump to force Iran into a deal on his terms. This comes a week after a US official said Trump is "exasperated" and there was "not a real strategy for how long or what they should do."
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The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter · Mon Aug 03 13:39:16 +0000 2026
BREAKING: The US has made a concession to Iran regarding the closure of the southern shipping route in the Strait of Hormuz, agreeing on keeping the southern route fully closed, per Al Mayadeen citing an Iranian source. Iran however still rejected the latest US Hormuz proposal, insisting the Strait of Hormuz will not fully reopen until the war ends.
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The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter · Mon Aug 03 11:52:23 +0000 2026
BREAKING: Iran directly rejects Trump's claim of new US-Iran negotiations starting this Monday afternoon, saying Iran is currently not having any negotiations with the United States and will not receive any delegations in the coming days nor visit another country, per Tasnim. Iran clarifies its only negotiations are with Oman, and are focused purely on creating a new temporary route through the Strait of Hormuz, which will not be the current northern or southern route, but a third route fully controlled and managed by Iran, with every ship needing Iranian permits for passage. Iran adds the US-backed southern route is completely rejected, and the new route is not related to opening or continuing the closure of the Strait, which will remain fully closed.
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The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter · Sun Aug 02 22:40:07 +0000 2026
BREAKING: A tanker has been targeted by Iran northeast of Khasab, Oman, with the UKMTO officially confirming the incident. The most likely target was the tanker 'VELOS AMBER' attempting to pass through the southern route in the Strait of Hormuz under U.S. cover more than an hour ago.
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The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter · Sun Aug 02 22:14:29 +0000 2026
BREAKING: Just 10 minutes before futures market open, Trump has claimed "there's a deal on Hormuz and there will be a deal on denuclearization" with the US "talking to them in the form of a negotiation" and "Iran negotiations to begin Monday afternoon." Iran continues to reject any negotiations with the US and launched anti-ship cruise missiles toward a ship just a few minutes ago.
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The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter · Sun Aug 02 21:58:11 +0000 2026
BREAKING: Iran's IRGC has just launched an anti-ship cruise missile from Sirik toward the Strait of Hormuz per initial reports, with the likely target being an oil tanker sent by the US that switched off its AIS an hour ago while passing through the US-backed southern route. This comes as Trump simultaneously claims just minutes ago "there's a deal on Hormuz and there will be a deal on denuclearization" with "new Iran negotiations to begin Monday afternoon."
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The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter · Sun Aug 02 18:04:26 +0000 2026
BREAKING: Thousands of Israeli troops were on maximum alert this weekend following US warnings of a pending American strike on Iran's infrastructure, only for Trump to cancel the operation at the last minute. Israeli security officials are now "extremely angry" at Trump and strongly criticize the abrupt cancellation, the second within a week, saying that unpredictable US decision making severely undermines Israeli operational planning and preparedness, per Kan.
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The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter · Sun Aug 02 16:52:46 +0000 2026
BREAKING: Iran's IRGC is considering launching preemptive strikes as Iranian officials are aware of Trump's political vulnerability and are looking to exploit, per WSJ.
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The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter · Sun Aug 02 16:39:47 +0000 2026
BREAKING: Unlike Saudi Arabia where Crown Prince MBS held a call just hours before Trump cancelled his massive attack, the UAE is lobbying Trump in recent days for far more decisive action against Iran, suggesting the US should take immediate control over the Strait of Hormuz, carry out harsher strikes and start a major ground operation, so that Iran's IRGC compromises, per WSJ. Gulf countries are frustrated with a lack of a clear strategy from the Trump administration as the war drags on, subjecting their territories to frequent Iranian attacks, while Patriot interceptor stocks are critically low and without a guarantee of protection.
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The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter · Sun Aug 02 15:52:30 +0000 2026
BREAKING: Iran has forced US forces to withdraw from Kuwait and Bahrain following weeks of constant Iranian missile attacks, pushing the US to reposition them further afield to Jordan, Israel and beyond. After 6 months of war with Trump, Iran has seized the initiative so that the US is "increasingly fighting at a pace set by Tehran," per FT. Iran's strategy that made the withdrawal happen is to force the US as far away from Iran as possible, out of the Gulf, Syria, and Iraq, and having them "holed up in Israel and Jordan," which is where US forces came under heavy Iranian fire in recent weeks, with hundreds of public figures signing a letter demanding immediate American withdrawal. That forced repositioning to Jordan has let Iran strike US soldiers more effectively, killing 3 US soldiers at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base more than 2 weeks ago.
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